Economist Thomas Malthus predicted that food production would not be able to keep up with population growth and that the future of mankind would be scarred with positive and preventive checks to keep the human population under control. Now, at the beginning of the 21st century, we know that Thomas Malthus’ theory was false. In fact, we overproduce food such that we could feed ten billion people in contrast to the 7.7 billion people alive right now. However, in the next few decades, food production is expected to drop despite the fact that the population will hit 9-10 billion by 2050.

The IPCC(United Nations’ International Panel on Climate Change) predicted a 2-6% decline in global crop yields for every decade onwards due to weather volatility, heat, drought, flooding, superstorms, insect infestations, etc. On top of this, Jerry Hatfield, director of the USDA’s National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, believes that the biggest threat of climate change would be its impact on food production.

Even in first world countries, the impacts of climate change are also felt in first world countries. The heatwave that swept through Europe this summer(2019) had a huge impact on their agriculture. Wine production in France, for example, is expected to fall by 13% this year. Climate change’s impact on food production was also felt in the United States, especially in the Midwest. Unusually heavy rains this spring brought about fields that were too wet to plant crops resulting in billions of dollars of lost crops.

Climate change also is further intensifying the problems of modern agricultural production, many of which are some of the causes of climate change. These include an increase food waste, the degradation of soil(which leads to the overuse of synthetic fertilizers which release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere), as well as the increased use of pesticides which has led to massive die-offs of bees. A 2014 IPCC report concluded that by the middle of this century, it may be possible that food production will drop to a level such that it would not be enough to support large scale human civilization. However, this is based on the assumption that current agricultural practices won’t change during the decades to come. Food production has changed drastically through the course of history and it would not be unlikely that there would be a revolution in food production in these upcoming decades in which a sustainable agricultural system, in the face of the era of climate change, will become a reality.